国产半导体设备的几点蜕变
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芯谋2024开年调研
国产半导体设备经过几年潜心发展，已经到出成绩的时候。最近密集调研，在产业一线看到国产设备一些可喜可贺的迹象。
半导体设备进入国际市场
我听到的第一个好消息是，最近有两个国际12吋厂已经准备评估国产半导体设备。为什么对设备品质要求苛刻的国际厂现在开始青睐国内设备？如果中国设备在国内12吋产线上大批量被验证，价格又比国际设备便宜30%，为何不试试呢？
国际企业的认可不会掺杂商业和技术之外的任何因素，只有质量过关，价格优惠它们才会给你机会。所以整条产线的中国设备获得国际大厂的肯定是一件大事，这是中国半导体设备从无到有，从有到优，从低端向高端，从成熟向先进，从单兵突进到齐头并进的标志。
以前半导体设备进军国际市场的只有北方华创中微这两家，现在北方华创、中微、盛美、晶盛、华海清科、正帆、先导等中国设备企业开始成建制地进军国际市场。无论是现实意义还是对未来的指向意义都令人无比振奋。
中国半导体设备产业从制裁后全面启动到现在也就短短的五年，现在取得如此大的进步出乎所有人意料。这大概是中国产业史上最为高效的一次国产替代浪潮。假以时日，全产业链的自立自强一定可以实现。
可以肯定地说，半导体设备是所有制造领域中最难进入的市场。前些年中国半导体设备要解决的还是有和无的难题，根本没有人去想有朝一日中国设备进入全球晶圆产线。得益于半导体产业对设备企业的支持，得益于国内晶圆厂扩产拉动国内半导体设备需求，2023年中国大陆半导体设备市场规模达到创纪录的342亿美元，增长8%，全球占比达到30.3%。芯谋研究预计，2024年中国大陆半导体设备市场规模将达到375亿美元，增长9.6%。
当成建制的国产线不断被测试，当国产设备陆续被充实到产线上稳定运行后，国产设备拿到了进入市场的门票。接下来要做的只是打磨产品，做精质量，降低成本。如同其它中国制造一样，只要拿到入市的门票，中国设备一定是全世界最具性价比的产品。在晶圆制造成本日益高涨的今天，整个国际市场需要成本管理大师——中国设备企业的入场。这是国际晶圆大厂乐见的，也是美国没有能力禁止的，更是全球制造业屡试不爽的产业规律。
国产设备兜底国际设备
我听到的第二个好消息是，国内设备厂家供货给国内12吋产线时，在做好自己产品的服务和维护的同时，开始为国际设备公司“兜底”。
如果国际设备公司无论因为何种原因，在后续的服务、维修和零部件供给上不能继续提供服务，国内的设备公司要顶上去，现在已经不少国内设备公司能做到了。
当一个国产设备平替进口设备进入生产线，只是完成了第一步工作。接下来在设备运行阶段，后续的运维管理要伴随设备整个生命周期，自然也要包括零部件的更换。后期运维十分关键，这也是设备大厂有数量众多的驻场工程师全程服务产线的原因。
当国产设备能够做到平替进口设备，能够支撑正常运维，也就意味着国产设备完全吃透了进口设备，在所有方面能够无缝替代进口设备。此时，国产设备企业为进口设备兜底也就是理所当然的事。
资本继续看好设备产业
第三个让我吃惊的消息是，在当下的融资环境下，一个成立不到三年的中国半导体设备公司，估值接近500亿，竟然还被投资人哄抢。
多年前在半导体产业方兴未艾时，在一个产业会议上，我说半导体产业是大风口、长赛道、金产业。今天资本变冷、内卷加剧，半导体依然是“大、长、金”产业。
半导体是中国唯一没有完成国产替代的大产业，是中国制造最后一块拼图。在目前供应受限的情况下，半导体设备的国产替代是中国倾举国之力、再苦再难也必须完成的任务。但今天的设备自给率不到25%，所以在中国半导体依然有很大的机会。
这些机会不是政策给的而是市场给的。中国半导体国内设备市场正在快速增长，正如前文所述，只要打进国产线，意味着中国设备被整个产业接纳，接下来就有机会进入国际市场。当中国设备的未来是全球市场，而且设备没有被卡脖子的风险，自然会被资本看好。
国际合作更进一步
某国际头部公司对中国半导体供应链具有独一无二的地位，据悉相关方面数次高规格会晤该公司，双方进行密切沟通。尽管美国政府不断对其施压，但该公司坚持供应中国。说明中国市场依然具有强大吸引力，相关措施也发挥了重要作用。对于如何维持与国际企业的合作，中国半导体还是有很大的腾挪空间，同时也有很多经验和教训需要总结和反思。
最近彭博也报道，美国继续施压荷兰日本企业与中国划清界限，但是收效不大。美国要求日本公司对华断供光刻胶等材料，但东京对华盛顿的最新要求反应冷淡。
目前的形势也有利于推动国际企业继续供应中国半导体，因为国际企业对美国的制裁已经失去耐心。在芯片法案出台后，美国总统专门造访这些盟友，为制裁中国画下红线，这些非美国际企业不得不听命于美国指令。而后美国为了制裁中国先进存储和人工智能芯片，又画下新的红线，经过旷日持久的谈判这些企业又从了。这一次当美国再将红线下移到成熟制程，盟友们说不了，因为这已经触及这些国际企业的红线。
2023年东电来自中国的收入占其营收的46.9%，达到该公司有史以来最高记录，成为日本第四大最有价值的公司；日本半导体清洗设备大厂迪恩士公布财报显示，中国营收占其总销售额达44%，较上一财年增长了19个百分点。2023年ASML中国大陆营收在第三季度高达总营收的46%，全年中国大陆贡献了ASML总收入达29%之多。
新的禁令如果得以实施，足以改变这些公司的基本面。剔除中国市场，从营收构成上这些企业可以说一家新的公司。这不仅仅是制裁中国，也是制裁日本和荷兰，所以盟友不从是自然而然的事。其实不要说盟友们冷脸以对，就连两家美国设备巨头也尝试越过红线供应中国企业。所以从这个层面来看，国际供应纵有波动，但也逐渐趋于稳定。
结语
中国设备企业的快速成长是足以改变中美对抗形势的决定性力量。或许有些环节暂时难以实现国产替代，但相当多的环节很快就可以实现国产替代，继而进军国际市场。这是全球半导体产业的新变量，所有参与制裁中国的国际企业都明白，越是严厉制裁中国的领域，越要面临中国企业的逐底竞争。ASML总裁担心的事正在成为现实。
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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 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